Peace and security policy challenges caused by the war in Ukraine
With the Russian aggression against Ukraine, European and global peace and security policy has entered a new era that must be shaped politically, militarily, economically and culturally. The geopolitical upheavals and challenges are fundamental and multifaceted. Dealing with them requires the development of new concepts and approaches that can help to constructively counter the growing regional and global instability.
Currently, three parallel geopolitical developments can be observed. First, we are witnessing an increasing shift in security policy toward deterrence and territorial defense in Europe, along with a regained strength of NATO. Russia is defined as the biggest security threat to European Union Member States and countries in the Eastern neighborhood due to its aggressive behavior. Germany announced a “Zeitenwende” which implies a reorientation of its previous military, security and energy policy. Sweden and Finland began NATO accession processes in May 2022. On April 4, 2023, Finland joined NATO. In view of the U.S. national security and defense policy, which increasingly prioritizes China and the Indo-Pacific region, the need for a reorientation of European security policy and a stronger role for Europe in conventional deterrence and defense are being discussed.
In addition, there is a threat of a reactivation of frozen conflicts that have existed in the European neighborhood for decades and in which Russia acted as a mediator or conflict party in the past: Transnistria, Nagorno-Karabakh, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Currently, Moscow is no longer a sufficiently influential actor for the parties to the conflict in the region and no longer an acceptable partner for the Western states. The antagonistic relations between Russia and the EU are changing the balance of power in the post-Soviet space, allowing for influence increase on the part of China, Turkey, Iran and US. In this context, Russia is still not ready to give up its position, while the EU is still in the process of developing a strategy for this new situation.
At the same time, we are moving toward the emergence of increasing multipolarity in international relations, with new regional actors and alliances speaking with their own voice in international affairs. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz noted this trend during his visit to Argentina in January 2023 as follows: "The world is becoming multipolar, I am firmly convinced of that. In the future, there will not be two blocs, but a whole series of influential states - in Asia, Africa and also in Latin America. And this world should be multilateral, so that as many states as possible cooperate with each other.”
The context described above highlights three main tasks: first, strengthening security on the Eurasian continent; second, regional crisis management; and third, management of the emerging multipolarity, which requires cooperative behavior. In addition to reshaping national and regional security policy, the major task for the future is further to find ways out of the current spiral of escalation and to consider how international relations based on trust and cooperation as well as associated peacebuilding can succeed. This challenge is likely to be met by finding a balance between distancing and cooperation at the regional and global level.
