On the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in Astana

With the G7 summit in Apulia barely over, preparations for the NATO summit in Washington from 9 to 11 July are already underway in the West and are currently dominating the news. However, it is also worth taking a look at summit diplomacy in the Eurasian region, where China and Russia are trying to expand their political room for manoeuvre and middle powers such as Kazakhstan are gaining in importance beyond Central Asia. On 4 July, the 24th summit of the heads of state and government of the member states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) - an organisation whose members together represent almost half of the world's population and account for around a quarter of global GDP and 15 percent of world trade - came to an end in the Kazakh capital Astana.

This time, the meeting was held under the motto “Strengthening multilateral dialogue - striving for lasting peace” and was held in the SCO+ format for the first time. In addition to the observer Mongolia, the dialogue partners Azerbaijan, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey and Turkmenistan also took part. UN Secretary-General António Guterres was also present at an SCO meeting for the first time. This significant expansion of the format alone makes this year's meeting special. However, other elements also point to a possible change or upgrading of the organisation in the coming years.

The SCO is a regional organisation that offers its member states a platform for dialogue and cooperation. It was originally founded to ensure stability and security in the Central Asian region after the collapse of the Soviet Union and to jointly combat extremism, terrorism and separatism. In 1996, the Shanghai Five group was founded, comprising Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The first agreements on military confidence-building measures were signed within this framework. In 2001, Uzbekistan joined the group and on 15 June 2001, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation began its work. In 2017, India and Pakistan became full members of the SCO and in 2023, Iran was admitted as a new member.

The originally Asian organisation transformed itself into a Eurasian one this year with the admission of Belarus.

The summit in Astana began with Belarus being welcomed as the tenth full member of the SCO. The originally Asian organisation transformed itself into a Eurasian with the admission of an exclusively European country, increasing its geographical, but also potentially political and economic reach. However, as the final document clearly shows, Central Asia remains the centrepiece of the SCO. This is also justified, as the region continues to be of crucial importance for regional stability and for combating extremism and terrorism.

In addition, it is currently gaining relevance as a transport route from China to Europe, for example via the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, also known as the Middle Corridor. Enhancing Eurasian transport connectivity by creating efficient synergies between several transport routes passing through the territory of the SCO countries - such as China's One Belt, One Road mega-project, the Middle Corridor and the North-South Corridor via India, Iran, Azerbaijan and Russia - was identified at this year's summit as one of the key areas for future SCO activities. New member Belarus is seen as an important element in the formation of a common Eurasian transport area due to its access to Western Europe.

Finally, it was emphasised that cooperation within the organisation can serve as a basis for the creation of an indivisible security architecture in Eurasia - an initiative that may stem from Russia's efforts to promote the creation of a Eurasian integration space in the face of conflict with the West. Since 2016, Moscow has been striving to form the Greater Eurasian Partnership in trade, economics and security policy. To this end, the potential of individual states and regional organisations - such as the Eurasian Economic Union, the SCO and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations - is to be pooled.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation would also like to become more involved in global issues.

The contours of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation as a Eurasian organisation were thus sharpened at the meeting in Astana. The summit could be the harbinger of significant geopolitical developments in Central Asia and Eurasia in the coming years. But the organisation also wants to play a greater role in global issues.

As the motto of this year's summit already indicates, the SCO is increasingly striving for a role as a global peace and security actor. The final document repeatedly reaffirms the need for realistic compromises and conflict resolution exclusively through dialogue and by peaceful means. Against the backdrop of increasing geopolitical tensions, existing platforms for conflict resolution such as the UN Security Council are indeed losing their effectiveness. The countries of the so-called Global South are demanding a greater say in international affairs and a fairer world order - and they are already acting in this direction. Against this background, the SCO member states reaffirm in their declaration their commitment to a “more representative, democratic, equitable and multipolar world order, based on the universally recognised principles of international law, cultural and civilisational diversity, and beneficial and equitable cooperation among States, with the United Nations playing a central coordinating role”.

In the unanimously adopted declaration, the members express their views on current pressing issues, but the corresponding statements remain largely general.

In view of the upcoming 80th anniversary of the founding of the United Nations, the SCO wants to make a contribution by adopting the initiative “On Global Unity for Just Peace, Harmony and Development” at the suggestion of the Kazakh President and inviting the international community to join it. However, there is still little information available on the content of this initiative. Moreover, if the SCO wants to make its mark in global peace and security policy, it must take a stand on specific global issues. In the unanimously adopted declaration, the members express their views on the current pressing issues, but the corresponding statements remain largely general and fall short of expectations, particularly with regard to solutions to the current hot conflicts.

With regard to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, concern is expressed about the escalation. The “actions that have led to numerous civilian casualties and the catastrophic humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip” are condemned, but without explicitly naming Hamas or Israel. Somewhat more clearly, it is pointed out that “the only possible way to ensure peace and stability in the Middle East is a comprehensive and just solution to the Palestinian question”.

Surprisingly, the war in Ukraine is not explicitly mentioned in the declaration. A clear position was obviously excluded in order not to jeopardise the consensus of the final document. However, it was addressed at several bilateral meetings: Turkish President Erdoğan, for example, spoke with Chinese ruler Xi Jinping about the danger of the conflict spreading.

The criticism of the unilateral imposition of sanctions, which is incompatible with the principles of international law and has a negative impact on third countries, can be interpreted as an allusion to this in the final declaration. At the same time, respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of states, non-interference in internal affairs and the non-use and non-threat of force are emphasised as the basis for the sustainable development of international relations, and could be interpreted as a hint to Russia and demonstrate the SCO's desire to position itself as a serious and responsible global player.

However, in order to appear credible as a global solution finder, the SCO would have to pacify its own members and contain the potential for conflict within its own ranks. For example, some Indian media explain Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's decision not to travel to the SCO summit and to be represented by his Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar by the fact that he wanted to avoid a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif due to bilateral tensions. However, the foreign ministers of India and China met on the sidelines of the summit. Both agreed to continue bilateral talks and measures to find an early solution to the remaining problems on the border. This example also shows the important function of the SCO as a platform for dialogue to discuss difficult issues among its members.

The SCO summit in Astana shows once again that the importance of middle powers is growing.

Overall, the SCO summit in Astana shows once again that the importance of middle powers is growing. This insight was also shared by this year's host, Kazakh President Qassym Shomart Toqayev, in a guest contribution: “As the major powers are less and less willing to trust the multilateral process and the smaller countries do not have the necessary influence, it is the task of the middle powers to take the lead.” Since 2022 at the latest, India, South Africa, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, among others, have confirmed this trend with their conspicuous commitment to multilateral reforms and in mediating and seeking solutions in the Ukraine war.

As far as the SCO is concerned, this organisation is being perceived more strongly today than before, also in the context of the search for solutions to current military conflicts. The presence of UN Secretary-General António Guterres at the summit in Astana is an indication of this revaluation. According to the UN Secretary-General, the UN and the SCO can work together to help unite the different parts of the world and limit the damage caused by the confrontation between the superpowers. It is to be expected that this regional organisation will work on consolidating and deepening its structures in the coming years. Proposals for the establishment of an SCO Investment Fund and an SCO Development Bank are currently being discussed.

The SCO summit also highlights a trend that has been emerging for several years: in view of the crisis in global governance and the slow pace of UN reform, multilateral associations such as BRICS+ and regional organisations such as the SCO are becoming increasingly attractive. Although these formats as alternative platforms for finding solutions and creating a fairer world order are characterised by the dominant role of major players such as China and Russia, they are increasingly being driven forward by emerging middle powers.

Original source: https://www.ipg-journal.de/regionen/global/artikel/bereit-fuer-die-ganz-grosse-buehne-7628/